What is the PPI?

NCAA Championship, April 3, 2023 [NRG Stadium, Houston, TX]

The PPI is a mathematically-based college basketball ranking system that was created back in 2002 that has been improved and tweaked in recent years (including a key algorithm switch in the 2024 offseason). The rankings incorporate where the two teams are ranked, where the game is, and what the margin of victory is. The first rankings are normally released after one month of Division I games have been played, but this year, we will release after about 6 weeks on December 16, 2024.  The PPI will project margins of victory for all ranked teams & games involving teams from the five major conferences and most importantly, projects upsets of ranked teams via the dreaded #ppiupsetalert.  In the 2023-24, 2022-23 and 2021-22 years, 47.5%, 57.2%, and 46.2%, respectively, of ranked teams that the PPI put on #ppiupsetalert lost.

In addition, the PPI periodically projects who is in and out of the NCAA Tournament.  In the 2023-24 year, the PPI projected 66 out of a possible 68 teams correctly.  Using the rankings, the PPI creates mock NCAA Tournament brackets so you can see potential matchups of your favorite team based on their current positioning in the rankings.  The true value of the PPI can be found during the NCAA Tournament, as teams like San Diego State and Florida Atlantic in 2022-23 and Loyola (CHI) in 2017-18, as examples, were much more highly rated than traditional RPI measurements.