What is the PPI?

NCAA Championship, April 3, 2023 [NRG Stadium, Houston, TX]

The PPI is a mathematically-based college basketball ranking system that was created back in 2002 that has been improved and tweaked in recent years (including a key algorithm switch in the 2022 offseason). The rankings incorporate where the two teams are ranked, where the game is, and what the margin of victory is. The first rankings are released after one month of Division I games have been played (this year, the first rankings were released on December 7, 2022).  Starting on December 6, 2023, the PPI will project margins of victory for all ranked teams & games involving teams from the six major conferences and most importantly, projects upsets of ranked teams via the dreaded #ppiupsetalert.  In the 2022-23, 2021-22 and 2020-21 years, 57.2%, 46.2% and 48.7%, respectively, of ranked teams that the PPI put on #ppiupsetalert lost.

In addition, the PPI periodically projects who is in and out of the NCAA Tournament.  In the 2022-23 year, the PPI projected 62 out of a possible 68 teams correctly (63 in the previous year).  Using the rankings, the PPI creates mock NCAA Tournament brackets so you can see potential matchups of your favorite team based on their current positioning in the rankings.  The true value of the PPI can be found during the NCAA Tournament, as teams like San Diego State and Florida Atlantic in 2022-23 and Loyola (CHI) in 2017-18, as examples, were much more highly rated than traditional RPI measurements.